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2006 NBA Finals: Heat @ Mavericks Preview, 9:00 PM EST

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, STAND UP… AND MAKE SOME NOISE… FOR YOUR… MIAMIIII HEEEEEAAAAAT!!!!!

(Audio clip courtesy of 790TheTicket)

Let’s take a look at the so called “expert” picks including notorious Heat Hater Marc Stein…

Let’s dive into the key story lines heading into tonights game…

• Though he assuredly will play in Game 1 of the Finals on Thursday, guard Dwyane Wade continues to battle the lingering effects of the flu.

• Monday’s practice involved going over ”three major, major defensive concerns we have.” Today, practice will concentrate on offense. The team will go to Dallas tonight, then practice there Wednesday.

• O’Neal and Alonzo Mourning both considered playing for the Mavericks at one point. When the Lakers began discussing trading O’Neal after the 2003-04 season, O’Neal said he thought about Dallas “once or twice, but I knew it wouldn’t happen. We tried to make it happen.”

• After seeing Udonis Haslem’s strong defense against New Jersey’s Nenad Krstic and Detroit’s Rasheed Wallace, Riley said Haslem, 6-8, is “used to playing big guys. This first two rounds may have benefited us a little bit because he’s playing against length.”

Let’s take a look into each matchup position by position and see who has the advantage…

Center – Shaquille O’Neal vs. DeSagana Diop

Shaq

The bad news for Shaq is that he will likely see more double-teams in this round, and more fouls. Whether it’s Diop or Erick Dampier, Dallas has two big bodies to use on him. Diop is quicker than Dampier and a better shot-blocker, but Dampier is a better low-post player. Look for Mavs coach Avery Johnson to use them both depending on his needs at any given time. D.J. Mbenga, a 7-footer, also could see action for Dallas once he completes his league-issued suspension for leaving the bench in the Cassandra Johnson incident during the Western finals. Together, the Mavs have 12-18 fouls a night to put on Shaq and send him to the foul line if necessary. In his one game against the Mavs during the regular season, Shaq had a modest 23 points and eight rebounds. Dallas could live with that, especially if Diop and Dampier are able to shut off the lane from Dwyane Wade’s penetration.

Advantage…Heat

Power Forward – Udonis Haslem vs. Dirk Nowitzki

Dirk Nowitzki

This one is a no-brainer. Look for the Mavs to run a steady diet of pick-and-rolls with Nowitzki as they try to bring the Heat big men out and force mismatches. The 6-11 Haslem won’t score much but he is a solid defender and rebounder. He helped limit Nowitzki to a respectable 25.0 points and 6.0 rebounds in the two games against Miami during the season series (though Nowitzki did shoot a sizzling 56.3 percent from the floor). If Haslem can just keep Nowitzki to around those numbers, the Heat will be thrilled. James Posey might also get the call here on occasion to give Nowitzki a different look.

Advantage…Mavs

Small Forward – Antoine Walker vs. Josh Howard

Josh Howard

Walker, the 6-8 veteran, will get his share of open looks from the double-teams paid to Shaq and Wade, and he must knock them down. But he also must avoid the temptation to settle for too many 3-pointers and try to use his size advantage over Howard in the post and while driving toward the basket. During one game in the season series Walker went 1-for-13 shooting the ball (including 0 for 4 from downtown). He can’t afford to shoots brick like that in this series. If Walker’s shot isn’t falling, or he’s not playing defense, Heat coach Pat Riley won’t hesitate to turn to Posey. Together, Walker and Posey have the experience and shot-making ability to present problems for the Mavs. But Howard is a rising star who should be able to get the edge if he plays to his all-around ability.

Advantage…Mavs

Shooting Guard – Dwyane Wade vs. Jason Terry

Like Power Forward this one is a no-brainer. In their two head-to-head meetings this season, Wade averaged just 19.5 points on 40.6 percent shooting. However, it should be noted that Shaq did not play in one of the games. Also, it’s safe to say that Wade will raise his game when the stakes are higher. Terry will likely be the starter here, though he could also slide back to the point guard if Johnson opts to use Adrian Griffin or Marquis Daniels to defend Wade. Either way, Terry will be critical for the Mavs. The 6-2 veteran was Dallas’ second leading scorer during the regular season (17.1 points) and is normally one of the best pure outside shooters in the game. He’s also a team leader, and one of the few Mavs not afraid to take big shots. But Terry has not shot well during this postseason (42.6 percent from the floor, and just 30.0 percent from downtown). The Mavs need him to regain his shooting eye soon or they could be in trouble.

Advantage…Heat

Point Guard – Jason Williams vs. Devin Harris

Devin Harris

On paper the Mavs would seem to have the edge here but I feel we have seen a different J-Will in game 6 in the ECF. The flip side for Miami is that he is just as likely to go cold, and he’s not a good defender against quicker types. For that reason, Riley often will turn to Gary Payton at the end of close games. Miami certainly will have its hands full against the speedy Harris. The 6-3 second-year flash helped turn the tide in the Spurs series after being inserted into the starting lineup for Griffin. He could be a major factor again here as Dallas tries to exploit Miami’s slow perimeter defense. However, Harris could just as easily find himself on the bench if the Mavs need to go bigger with Griffin or Daniels to stop Wade. If so, Terry will handle most of the ball-handling and set-up responsibilities.

Advantage…Mavs

The Rest…

Bench – Heat vs Mavs

Dallas Mavericks

Advantage…Mavs

Coach – Pat Riley vs Avery Johnson

Pat Riley

Advantage…Heat

Let’s take a look at the key questions heading into the finals…

1. How good was the Heat during the regular season — really?
2. Does the statistical evidence support the notion that the Heat came together during the postseason?
3. Can the Mavericks defend Dwyane Wade?
4. How much should be read into Dallas’ blowout win over Miami on Feb. 9?
5. Can Dallas neutralize Shaquille O’Neal?
6. If this series comes down to a couple of possessions, who wins?

Basically it comes down to this. Who will win?

Well SporTech Matter has predicted Heat in 6 just like the ECF finals. We will be right.

Make sure to check out others from around the innerweb. MiamiSportsDudes like usual always has an excellent take. MiamiHeatWave has all your chat action in game.

I might get the live chat up and running for the Finals. Not sure if I am going to be paying much attention. Drop me a comment if you want the live chat opened up and I will be happy to oblige.

Make sure you vote in the SporTech Finals poll which will be up and running throughout the Finals.

[MEET THE HEAT]
[MEET THE MAVS]
[SI]
[ESPN]
[82 GAMES]
[SPORTECH POLL]